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LME aluminium fell below $3,000 a tonne on 14 October, its lowest since December, erasing the gains made since the Iran war began. It stood at about $3,008/t on 19 October, around 8% lower on the month and 8% higher than a year ago. A strong dollar, faster Gulf restarts and rising Chinese exports did the damage.

Forecasters now see a surplus next year. CRU expects 1.4 million tonnes in 2027, against a 711,000 t deficit in 2026, with Middle East output rising from 4.8 to 6.4 Mt and Indonesia more than doubling to 3.2 Mt. Wood Mackenzie sees about 500,000 t and Bank of America about 240,000 t, citing slower Indonesian start-ups.

China produced 3.91 Mt in September, up 3.1%, and a record 11.84 Mt in July–September. Its exports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 25.9% to 656,000 t in September, the highest in three months, despite export duties. Japanese buyers agreed a Q4 premium of $255/t, 35% below Q3. The US Midwest premium was last about $1.06/lb.

Alba is producing at about 80% of pre-war levels from Lines 4–6, exporting through Jeddah and Sohar. EGA says a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter has resumed, ahead of earlier expectations, with full output targeted for Q1 2027. Gulf metal still has to use costly routes that bypass Hormuz.

Hormuz has turned more dangerous. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre recorded 15 attacks on shipping between 6 and 14 October, 11 of them in four days, and two cargo ships were reported sunk on 15 October. The threat level remains "severe". Brent crude traded around $106 a barrel on 14 October.

The first EU trilogue on extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium products takes place on 20 October in Strasbourg, with a second, provisionally final round on 30 November. Parliament wants about 457 product lines and would cut the aluminium threshold from 50 tonnes to 5 tonnes a year per importer; member states want about 200 lines and keep 50 tonnes.

The US ambassador to India said on 15 October that the two sides are "very close" to a trade deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai on 20 October, with energy and strategic ties on the agenda. Nothing has been signed.

No change to US Section 232 aluminium duties had been announced by 19 October: 50% on the full value of goods made almost entirely of aluminium, 25% for goods substantially of aluminium, 10% for US-smelted and cast metal, and 200% on Russian-origin metal. US–Canada duties and the stalled USMCA review are unchanged ahead of the US midterms on 3 November.

Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October, the first rise after 13 weeks of falls. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa 7% to $3,945. Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884; Shanghai–New York eased 1% to $10,075.

Carriers are seeking Asia–Europe rate increases from 19 October, but Drewry doubts they will stick, as blank sailings drop from six to two next week. The Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd AE12 service starts routing both ways through Suez from 27 October.

July–September was the highest quarter on record for every vehicle segment (SIAM, 15 October). Passenger vehicle dispatches rose 30.7% to 13.6 lakh, led by utility vehicles (+34.2%). Two-wheelers rose 15.2% to 64.3 lakh, but the mix shifted: scooters grew 27.7% and motorcycles 7.4%. Commercial vehicles rose 28.7% and three-wheelers 23.6%.

In September alone, passenger vehicle dispatches rose 21.8% to 4.54 lakh and two-wheelers 13.5% to 24.6 lakh. Two-wheeler exports rose 27.7% in the quarter, while passenger vehicle exports fell 5.2%, hit by Middle East logistics. Passenger vehicle dealer stock stood at 43–45 days at the end of September, against the recommended 21.

The EU plans to ban waste exports, including aluminium scrap, to non-OECD countries from no earlier than 2027. India takes about a third of EU aluminium scrap exports and would be among the most affected.